1970 年代研究三角關係的專家塔圖（Michel Tatu）指出，美、中、蘇 「三者之一欲激起另兩方同謀之必然方式，為展現過度侵略性」。本文以塔 圖之分析，探討1979 年以來美臺軍事、政治與經貿關係之演變。由過去 美、中、臺三角關係之互動，可以看出以下的特性：（1）中國對臺有過度侵 略性的舉止，如1996 年臺海危機，美國主動強化美臺軍事關係，增加美臺 合作的空間；（2）在中國壓力下，國際組織有過度的舉止，如2007 年聯合 國秘書長潘基文謬誤解讀臺灣地位，美國願為臺仗義執言；（3）臺北有過度 「意外」之舉，如2003 年倡議公投，增加美中合作防獨的動力；（4）美國 若過度親中傷害臺灣利益，會促使美國國會採因應對策，彌補美臺關係， 「臺灣關係法」即為一例；（5）如果處置得宜，美臺關係與兩岸關係可以同 時並進；（6）臺灣經濟若進一步邊緣化並過度依賴大陸市場，不利美國的戰 略布局；（7）中國崛起，美國重返亞洲，美國有賴中國合作之議題日增，美 臺關係有機會提升亦面臨嚴峻挑戰；臺灣若能深化自由、民主、人權等核心 理念，應能爭取美國朝野更多的支持。

Michel Tatu, an expert on US-China-USSR relations, observed in 1970 that “the surest way for any of the three to provoke the other two into collusion is to display undue aggressiveness.” This study analyses USTaiwan relations in light of Tatu’s assumption. The interactions of USTaiwan- China relations since 1979 are marked by the following features: （1）When China acts with undue aggressiveness against Taiwan – as for example in the 1996 missile crisis which prompted the US to dispatch two aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Strait – the result has been strengthened military ties with Taiwan;（2）The US has objected to all administrative barriers that unilaterally determine the political status of Taiwan by UN system agencies, as when UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon misinterpreted the status of Taiwan in 2007;（3) When Taiwan “surprises” its interlocutors, as with the 2003 referendum initiative, Washington and Beijing found common ground to contain Taipei;（4）When the US administration unduly injures Taiwan’s interests, US Congress takes concrete actions to strengthen US-Taiwan ties – for instance, by passing the Taiwan Relations Act;（5）With proper policies, Taipei can maintain good relations with Washington and Beijing at the same time;（6）If Taiwan’s economy is further marginalized and grows more reliant on the Chinese market, this will have strategic implications for US-Taiwan relations;（7）With the rise of China, Taiwan will face further challenges in its relations with the United States.