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篇名 見面三分情與終局效果:囚犯困境賽局之實驗
卷期 18:2
並列篇名 Face-to-Face and End-Game Effects in Prisoner Dilemma Games - An Experimental Study
作者 江長周楊奕農
頁次 001-022
關鍵字 囚犯兩難實驗經濟見面三分情終局效果Prisoner’s DilemmaExperimental EconomicsFace-to-faceEnd-game Effects
出刊日期 201503

中文摘要

本研究利用實驗經濟的方法來檢驗雙佔Bertrand市場中,廠商的決策行為是否會因為匿名 與否以及是否事先知道賽局回合數及何時結束而有顯著的差異。本文有別於過去相關賽局文獻 以合作為實驗分析重點,我們改用\"背叛''一即不合作為分析重點,並再將之細分為弱式和強式 背叛進行檢定。實驗的結果顯示匿名與否會造成受試者的決策行為有顯著的差異;亦即在不匿 名的情況下,即使是與對手只有一面之緣,受試者探取背叛策略的次數顯著較少,故從實驗結 果確定見面三分情的效果的確顯著。此外,本文亦針對在重覆賽局中,若受試者是否因知道賽 局何時結束,而在賽局結束前幾回合即提前背叛,即所謂「終局效果」來進行檢定。經無母數 的檢定結果證實在匿名時,終局效果是顯著的,受試者在遭對手背叛之前會選擇先下手為強; 但在不匿名的情況下,可能受到見面三分情的影響,終局效果並不顯著。

英文摘要

This experimental study aims to examine the end-game effects of prisoner’s dilemma games presented in a form of Bertrand competition with the face-to-face versus anonymity treatments in a repeated game. Our experimental findings are summarized as follows. First, it is found that firm's decisions to defect in the face-to-face condition are statistically different from that in the anonymous condition. Specifically, the frequencies of firm's defections in the face-to-face condition are significantly less than the ones in the anonymous condition. Second, the results also confirm the end-effects as predicted by the reputation model in which cooperation occurs in early rounds of the game and then is followed by defection in rest of rounds in a finitely repeated game under the anonymity condition. However, the end-game effects are attenuated under the face-to-face condition.

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