本文回顧中共經濟快速成長支持中共國防費及軍力發展過程，並透過系統動態學構建中 共軍力估計模型，過程中以軍費投入轉換函數及中共各軍種威脅指數模擬估測中共不同經濟 成長率下未來十年中共軍力成長狀況，模擬結果發現中共將於2008年後取得臺海優勢，造成 臺海軍力失衡，於2011年以後可能逐漸取代美國與亞洲伙伴於軍事上的優勢，對此情況，本 文建議國軍未來軍事現代化應朝向之目標。

This paper reviews the process of People's Republic of China defence expenditure and forces development supporting by rapid economic growth and estimates People’s Liberation Army(PLA) forces by system dynamics models-building. The models forecast PLA forces extending in next ten year under different ranges of economic growth rate by using defence expenditure input transform function and PLA services threaten index simulation. From result of the simulation, this study find out some hints that PLA will obtain Taiwan Strait superiority after 2008, leading to military unbalance between PLA and Republic of China(ROC). After 2011, PLA may overpass the military power of USA and Asia confederate gradually. At the end, we propose some suggestions in terms of the future goal for ROC’s military modernization.