中共利用其龐大的天然資源、全球最多的勞動力及最大市場，結合其積極的經濟改革開放政策，促使其近年來的經濟發展快速成長，提供中共更多的國防預算及經費，進而促成其軍力快速增強，尤其在高科技武器及設備的研發及購買，故中共作戰能力已從陸上強權走向近海強權及空中強權。故國軍「建軍、備戰」應瞭解中共攻台可能作戰方式，才能有效積極防禦嚇阻中共對台作戰、消極則能降低國軍作戰損失。而中共攻台可能作戰方式，必需考量兩岸間的國防預算、軍事武器採購及軍事能力，其次為美國、日本、聯合國的態度及介入程度、以及對國際政治及經濟的影響，故此問題屬於多層級多評準的問題，又需在複雜而不確定環境下進行決策。本研究目的在建立中共攻台可能方式評量模型，它應涵蓋戰略構想、陸、海、空軍軍事能力、以及國際政經情勢等評量項目，並以模糊多評準理論做為模型建立之依據，以利進行實證研究分析，其中研究程序包括情境分析與判斷、模型建立步驟程序、模型層級結構架設、問卷設計之依據及方式、問卷對象之選擇等。藉由專家訪談及調查，期能探究「中共攻台可能方式」的三大評量構面及十五項評量準則模型，以瞭解國軍相對作戰能力的優勢與劣勢、以及建軍規劃方案之優先排序。研究結果顯示在「中共攻台方式」中計有「以戰逼談作戰」、「大規模攻台作戰」、「不接觸作戰」及「準軍事作戰」四種方式較有可能。

With the richest natural resource, the most labor population, and the biggest market in the world, Mainland China use the aggressive economics reform policy not only to push through it’s fast economical development in recent years but also to offer much more defense budget to make it’s radical enhancement in military force. Especially, by means of procurement and R&D in high-tech weaponry, Mainland China’s battle disposition graduate from the land power to the offshore power and the air power. In order to deter Mainland China’s invasion of Taiwan and to reduce the fighting loss of military force, “Developing military force and preparing for war” should depend on the PLA’s possible invasion way of Taiwan. The possible ways of the cross-strait war firstly depends on the defense budget, military weaponry acquisition and power, secondly, the attitude and the involving extent of U.S.A., Japan, and U.N., thirdly, the influence of the international politics and economics. Thus the problem is a multilevel, multi-criteria problem, the decisions need to be made in a complicated and uncertain environment. The purpose of this study is to develop a model to evaluate the Scenarios of PLA’s Invasion of Taiwan, the evaluation criteria should include the missions and requirements of the war, the possessed major force of army, navy, and air force, and the impact of international politics and economics, etc. Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making methodology was used to build up the dimensions and criteria of the 「Scenarios of PLA＇s Invasion of Taiwan」model. Interviewing experts and making questionnaire can help us find out the evaluation dimensions and the criteria of the model to use as understanding the strengths and weaknesses of our military forces, and providing us with priority of improvement to further develop our military force and well prepare for any war. The research results showed that there are 4 ways most likely happened in the cross-strait war: the “achieving negotiation through war”, the “landing operations war”, the “non-contacting war”, and the “quasi-military war”.