篇名 | 第五屆立委選舉台聯候選人的得票分布:三種得票離散程度衡量工具的分析 |
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卷期 | 12:2 |
並列篇名 | The Vote Distribution of the Taiwan Solidarity Union: An Analysis of the 2001 Legislative Election Records |
作者 | 吳偉立 、 洪永泰 |
頁次 | 189-212 |
關鍵字 | 立委選舉 、 台聯 、 得票分布離散程度指標 、 政治版圖 、 legislative election 、 Taiwan Solidarity Union 、 vote dispersion indicator 、 political map 、 TSSCI |
出刊日期 | 200511 |
本文以2001年立委選舉資料探究台聯的選票分布情形,採用候選 人在各村里的得票離散程度指標、累積部分村里得票數百分比、和跨 年度得票率穩定程度三種衡量工具,研究結果證實台聯候選人的得票 分布呈現極為明顯的集中情況,對特定候選人的個案研究也發現台聯 候選人跨年度得票率的穩定度有相當的可觀性。本文更進一步說明台 聯實際運作的邏輯乃基於現行立委選舉制度與其群眾基礎所產生的互 動關係。
Is it the ideology affiliated with ex-president Lee Teng-hui or the traditional local political factions that consist of the bases of Taiwan Solidarity Union's support? Our study finds that the later plays more important role than the former does. The study derives three indicators using village vote counts from the 2001 and some from 1995 and 1998 legislative election records, the first is a Gini-coefficient type indicator showing the extent of candidate's vote dispersion pattern; the second uses votes from only a portion of total villages, from top down 10%, 20% and from bottom up 10%, 20% to show the distribution of candidate's strength and weakness; the third uses the overlapping percentage of candidate's top 5% vote-getting villages during 1995, 1998 and 2001 elections to examine candidate's steady strength before and after the Lee Teng-hui affiliation. The article also discusses the campaign strategies employed by the TSU for maximizing her political strength under the SNTV electoral system in Taiwan.