臺灣截至目前人口與廠商聚集的槪念可透過遞增報酬建立廠商區位選擇模 式來表現。機會與必要性爲該模式的兩個主要構件。假設廠商遷移的交易成本 爲零，則廠商傾向鎖定在某一特定區域。本硏究利用假想隨機與臺灣本島實際 廠商成長資料進行模擬以檢驗區域鎖定效果。硏究設計提出兩組模擬：測試模 擬與控制模擬。前者在比較考慮廠商遷移距離成本的區域選擇模式與Arthur的 競爭科技模式的異同。後者則在調控模式參數値（包括距離成本、地理利益與 遞增報酬率）以檢定區域鎖定效果。模擬結果顯示距離成本是廠商是否鎖定某 一區域的重要因素。Arthur對競爭科技模式鎖定行爲特性的預期充分呈現在本 硏究之模擬中。模式參數値的區域性差異明顯地以非線性方式影響區域鎖定效 果。基於模擬的觀察，本硏究提出平衡區域發展的對策。

The notion of agglomeration can be incorporated into a locational choice model of firms based on increasing returns. Chance and necessity are important components in that choice model. Under the assumption that the transaction cost of moving is zero, firms tend to lock in to a particular region. Such a regional lock-in effect is examined in the simulations using hypothetical, random data and real data of growth of firms in Taiwan. Two sets of simulations were conducted in the research design: pilot and control simulations. In the first set of simulations, firms' distance cost of moving were incorporated into the model to be compared with Arthur's original model of competing technologies. In the second set, the parameters of the model, including distance cost of moving, geographical benefit and rate of increasing returns, were controlled to examine the regional lock-in effect. The results showed that distance cost of firms's moving played an important role as to whether firms would lock in to a region. Arthur’s expectation of the properties of the lock-in behavior of increasing returns of competing technologies was found appropriate in the simulations. Regional differences in terms of the values of parameters significantly affected the regional lock-in effect in a non-linear way. Policies are proposed as to how to achieve balance amongst regional developments based on these observations.