本研究以視覺實驗模擬生活中機率資訊未明確揭示下之風險情境, 以探討該情境下經濟決策者之風險態度。實驗參與者被要求從兩兩 一組, 等同於單一或複合經濟樂透之選項裡選擇其偏好之組合, 而 其報酬為最終累積所得金額之固定比例。實驗結果顯示: (1)面對具 相同機率分配之單一與複合樂透,決策者偏向趨避複合樂透, (2) 隨 等值單一樂透獲最終報酬之機率提高,其愈趨避複合樂透, (3) 決策 者以不同機率權重函數衡量單一與複合樂透, 且(4) 面對複合樂透 時, 前後機率之差距與安排順序對決策者賦予複合樂透之評價, 未 具顯著影響。

This research uses visual task experiments to mimic a realistic environment in which risky decisions are made without explicit information regarding probabilities of happening events, and to investigate how individuals make economic decisions when facing such uncertainty. During the experiment, participants choose between pairs of economic alternatives mathematically equivalent to either simple or compound lotteries. Their final payments are a fixed proportion of the cumulative money earned from all lottery choices. The results suggest: (1) decision makers are averse to compound lotteries when choosing between simple and compound lotteries of mathematically equivalent probability distributions; (2) there is a stronger aversion to compound lotteries when facing a higher overall probability of gaining a monetary reward; (3) individuals use different probability weighting functions to evaluate probabilities in compound and simple lotteries; and (4) the order of probabilities and their differences in compound lotteries do not have significant impact on individuals’ choices.