近年來中國大陸社會抗爭湧現的頻率與規模都極為驚人，各地都出現政府「維穩」與民眾「維權」間的張力，也使得維護社會穩定成為考核各級政府的重要參照。不同於過往研究多將國家視為單一權威，本文強調國家權力是碎裂的，進而提出一個三層的模型架構。在此架構中，三個主要行動者分別為「上級政府」、「地方政府」和「抗爭者」，每個行動者有其各自的利益考量以及策略選擇，本文建構簡單的數學模型，進而推論出三者互動的結果將出現六種抗爭類型。此一架構不僅解釋了當前中國複雜的國家社會關係，也幫助我們理解中共威權韌性的特質。

In recent years, there is a striking increase in both scale and frequency of popular protests in China. The mounting tension reflects a direct clash between maintenance of stability and public’s desire to exercise their rights. As a result, maintaining social stability has been one of the most important considerations for the Chinese government. Unlike most current studies describing state power as a single authority, this study emphasizes that state power is fragmented and presents a framework for the triple-level analysis model. In this model, there are multilevel strategic interactions among three main actors – upper authority, local government and protesters – as well as resulting six patterns of popular protests. The present study recognizes the complicated state-society relationship in the contemporary China and explains the dynamics of Chinese Communist Party’s regime reliance.