面對台灣保險業務的競爭日益激烈，保險業務員是壽險行銷能否成功的關鍵因素，市場上客戶對保險公司的認識是透過保險業務員而來的；保險公司要將商品賣給客戶，也必須透過保險業務員的介紹。注意保險業務員的心理因素，將會有較佳的業務績效。自我效能論認為個體對於工作表現的信心水準愈高，則未來成就愈好。然而，過去已有許多研究指出，對於未來成就或表現的過度高估，可能是一種自我顯揚偏誤的正向錯覺。本研究以保險公司151位保險業務員（男性佔41%，女性佔59%；平均年齡33歲，標準差1.1）為調查樣本，採取縱貫性研究，蒐集業務員的自我效能，預估的業務績效、以及他們分別在計畫初始、三個月後與六個月後等三個時段的業務績效。主要目的為探討保險業務員自我效能與正向錯覺的關係，以及檢驗保險業務員自我效能、正向錯覺與其業務績效的關係是否穩定。研究結果有以下發現，第一，低自我效能者較容易產生正向錯覺；第二，自我效能與業務績效的關係在半年內相當穩定；第三，正向錯覺者在業務績效低於無正向錯覺者，且這種現象在低自我效能者顯著高於高自我效能者。研究結果可提供保險公司，未來提升保險業務員的業務績效時重要的啟示。

The Life insurance salesman is the key factor in the success of marketing when the insurance industry is faced with increasingly fierce competition in Taiwan. The awareness about customers in insurance companies comes from their salesmen. Because Insurance companies want to sell insurance to customers, these products must be introduced through the salesman. If companies pay more attention to the psychological factors affecting insurance salesmen, then they will have better sale performances. Past research indicates that the self-efficacy theory suggests that if individuals' confidence in their performance is at a higher level, their performance in the future will be better. Past studies also indicate that inflated self-estimate for the future performance the so-called positive illusions, serves as one kind of self-enhancement bias. 151 insurance salesmen coming from some insurance companies in Tainan (41% male, 59% female; M age = 33 yr., SD =1.1) participated in a longitudinal study during a half year period. This research aims to examine the relationship between self-efficacy and positive illusions as well as the impact of positive illusions on subsequent sales performance. Results show that, first, self-efficacy is negatively correlated with positive illusions and the positive illusions of salesmen with lower self-efficacy are significantly higher than those with higher self-efficacy; secondly, the relationship between self- efficiency and sales performance is quite stable in six months; thirdly, the expected performance on future sales performance of individuals with positive illusions is higher than those without positive illusions. This research is expected to help insurance advisors to enhance salesmen's performance in insurance companies.