近年來面對中國經濟及軍力強勢崛起，引發亞太地區軍事失衡及區域安全威脅；最終會影響 亞太地區的經濟發展。本研究以日本為研究樣本，探討其執政黨國會席次比例對國防及社會福利 預算佔政府總預算比例之影響。 以日本1960年到2015年的時間數列資料進行分析。本研究探用單根檢定、共整合檢定、向 量誤差修正模型(VECM)、Granger因果關係等分析方法。實證分析將中國軍事威脅、美國軍事同 盟、日本國家經濟實力視為控制變數，檢視日本國防及社會福利預算與日本執政黨佔國會席次比 例之關聯性。共整合分析結果顯示執政黨席次顯著正向影響國防預算及社會福利預算佔總預算之 編列比例。在因果關係檢定中發現日本執政黨國會席次比例對國防及社會福利預算存在單向因果 關係。

In Recent years, the military imbalances and security threats in Asia-Pacific region are caused by China’s rapidly rise of economic and military strength. The negative trend will impact the economic progress in this area. In this study, we examine the relationship between the parliamentary seats proportion of ruling party and the proportion of defense and social welfare of government budget in Japan. Related annual time series data ranges from 1960 to 2015 are collected. Unit root test, co-integration test, Granger causality and vector error correction model test are used to verify the relation. China military threat, US alliance and local economic situation are controlled to investigate the relationship between parliamentary seats proportion of ruling party and the proportion of defense and social welfare of government budget in Japan. The result of co-integration test shows Japan’s parliamentary seats proportion of ruling party have a positive impact on the defense and social welfare budget of the government and Granger causality analysis further verify the one way positive impact of Japan’s parliamentary seats proportion of ruling party on the defense and social welfare budget of the government.