本文提出一個概念與理論分析框架，以探討中國一帶一路戰略的動機、困境與挑戰。本文主張一帶一路可以被看成是中國新的地緣經濟戰略。一帶一路可能構造一個中國主導的經濟、外交與安全體系，從而深刻影響中國內政外交的轉型。一帶一路的不確定性在於，中國對於自己在世界舞台上應當擔負的角色有極大的不確定。雖然是一項目標遠大的戰略，一帶一路卻面臨很多挑戰，包括安全威脅、地緣競爭、區域反彈。如果政治邏輯挑戰經濟理性，一帶一路可能惡化中國市場導向的經濟改革所處的政策環境。中國未來的經濟實力將最終決定一帶一路的發展前景。

This article aims to provide a conceptual and theoretical framework to analyze motivations, dilemmas, and challenges of China’s OBOR strategy. The article argues that OBOR could be viewed as China’s new geoeconomic strategy. Potentially creating a new, China-led economic, diplomatic, and security system, OBOR has great potential to transform China’s domestic and foreign policy. Uncertainties of OBOR are largely due to the fact that China is still uncertain about its role on the world stage. While OBOR is an ambitious plan, it faces many challenges, including security threats, geopolitical competition, and regional backlash. As political logic potentially trumps economic rationales, OBOR might worsen the policy atmosphere of China’s market-driven reform. Ultimately, the future of China’s economic power will shape OBOR’s trajectory.