國防預算與其他主要政府預算項目之間是否存在抵換關係是重要課題，但有很長一 段時間未有深入探討。本研究採用新的研究方法來檢視我國1961 至2015 年之國防預算 與教育科學文化預算、經濟發展預算及社會福利預算之間的抵換關係。單根檢定顯示變 數的非定態特性，共整合檢定支持經濟發展預算及社會福利預算對國防預算具有預算抵 換關係；向量誤差修正模型探討影響國防預算短期變動的因素。本研究也建議政府必須 重新評估現行的預算分配以因應國防需求的增加。

Whether there exists a trade-off relationship between defense budget and other major government budget is an important issue, however, scare studies focus on this issue for a long time. In this study, new research method is adopted to investigate the substitute relationships among defense budget, social welfare budget, educational and culture budget and economic development budget through data covering from 1961 to 2015. Unit root test shows that all variables are non-stationary. Co-integration test supports that social welfare budget and economic development budget trade off defense budget in the long-run; vector error correction model explores factors influencing short-term changes of defense budget. This study also urges government to re-evaluate the current budgetary allocation to cope with the increasing demand of national defense.