本文從近來德國的調控理論對福利國家政策效果的反省，指出 隨著社會關係的日益複雜，國家必須體認到其功能的侷限，以及社 會政策效果的不確定性。因此，關鍵在於國家對於社會變遷的觀察 能力必須相對應地提升，並且掌握社會政策可能引起的社會性效 果。這方面的分析可以應用社會學研究中的生命歷程典範。生命歷 程研究強調福利國家對於個人生命歷程的形塑效果：一方面國家以 行政力量爲社會成員劃出了生命歷程中重要階段的年齡界線，從而 規劃了這些成員進出特定社會領域的時間表；另一方面，在這種制 度規劃下，一個可預見的時間界域浮現於個人意識中，更強化了制 度設計的正當性。生命歷程的制度化不但是福利制度的實施前提， 更成爲實施該制度的必然結果。但是，生命歷程型態的變遷對社會 政策同樣也有深遠的影響，從而使原本的福利國家制度安排發生問 題。因此，社會政策的實行有必要同時評估其對個人生命歷程的影 響，藉此瞭解政策的實際和可能效果，作爲後續政策制定的參考。

This article reviews the reflection of the Guidance Theory upon the impact of social policy on the society and examines its implications for the social policy research in Taiwan. The Guidance Theory stresses that the state has to be aware of the limit and ambivalence of its social policy. The key issue is the ability of the state to perceive social change and realize possible outcomes of its social policy. The life-course research, which is widely applied in recent decades, can be utilized in such analyses. This approach emphasizes the molding effect of the welfare state on the individual life courses: on the one hand, the state marks for its society members age lines of critical phases in their life courses, setting up a time table for the entry and exit of the labor market; on the other hand, a foreseeable time horizon emerges in the consciousness of individuals under such institutional regulations, which in turn justifies the raison d’etre of such institutional design. The institutionalization of the life course is not only the premise of welfare programs but also their necessary outcome. Yet the change of life course patterns have equal influences on the social policy, posing new problems to the original welfare arrangements. It is thus essential for researchers to assess the impact of social policy on the individual life courses as a reference for future policy-making.