國軍近年推動各項人力精簡政策，歷經「精實案」、「精進案」及「精粹案」， 未來更計晝推行「勇固案」，預計兵力將精簡至約17萬人。在人員不斷的精簡下，擔 任空用油料補給作業的人數亦隨之逐年下降。然而，空用油料需求量並未減少，如何 在人力精簡下兼顧任務遂行，應是值得探討的議題。 本研究以執行本島空軍聯隊航空油料供補系統為研究對象，從系統觀點探討影響 供補作業之關鍵因素，並結合Dupuy定量判定模式，發展系統動態分析模型。運用此 模型進行政策分析與模擬，探討人員編制數改變對運補作業之影響，並從作戰資源角 度，分析交戰雙方的空中戰力（航空器）消長情形，作為高階管理者制定相關政策之參 考，相關建議亦於文内探討。

Taiwan s military had implemented the policy of organizational streamlining. After the “JingshihProgram”，“Jingjin Program”，and “Jingtra Program”，Taiwan’s military now is planning to implement the “Yungu Program” to trim military personnel down to about 170,000. Under these downsizing programs, the supply and demand of aviation fuel supply is unbalanced. Therefore, how to do the best use of resources and make an appropriate policies to meet the needs is an important research issue. This research is focused on the system of aviation fuel supply and we identifies key factors which influence the system ’ s performance. And then we integrate these factors with Quantified Judgement Model to construct a system dynamics model, and use it to analyze different policies. By discussing the trend of the capability of manpower, capability of fuel supply, opposition combat power ratio and the number of fighters, we provide suggestions for top managers when they formulate relevant policies. Relevant recommendations will also be discussed in this paper.