本研究採用臺灣教育長期追蹤資料庫，檢驗高中二年級參與者之前學業能力及努力對高中三年級學業成敗歸因的預測力。過去研究發現，學業能力與成敗歸因有顯著關係，但少有研究區分學業能力初始水準及成長斜率的預測力。統計分析發現，高中三年級學生傾向將學業成功及失敗都歸因於學習習慣、努力及能力等三項內控因素；其次，不論是學業成功或失敗，學業能力初始水準負向預測能力歸因，學業能力成長斜率正向預測能力歸因；第三，不論是學業成功或失敗情境，自發學業努力初始水準正向預測努力歸因，但學業努力成長斜率負向預測努力歸因；最後，學業能力與自發努力皆成長，可以顯著預測將學業成功歸因於能力，但於不同學習階段有不同方向的預測力。在學業失敗的情境下，學業能力與自發努力都呈現正向成長的學生較不會歸因於努力，但較會歸因於學習習慣。本研究結果並不完全支持自利歸因偏差及自我價值理論的預測，但與過去研究相同，認為努力歸因對於臺灣學生有重要價值。

This study examined the prediction of academic competence and efforts in academic attribution. Past researches found the significant relationship between academic competence and academic attribution, but few distinguished the prediction of the intercept of academic competence from the one of the slope. The data of Taiwan Educational Panel Survey (TEPS) were used. The academic competence and efforts measured in Grade 7, 9, and 11 were expected to predict the academic attribution measured in Grade 12. TEPS asked the participants indicate which one was the main factor respectively for academic success and for academic failure. The choices were effort, ability, study habits, parenting, teaching, and peer. Latent growth modeling was conducted. It was found that students of Grade 12 attributed their academic performance to study habits, efforts, and ability, which were internal locus of control. Second, regardless of academic success or failure, the intercept of academic competence predicted the attribution to ability negatively, the slope of academic competence positively. Third, regardless of academic success or failure, the intercept of academic efforts predicted the attribution to efforts positively, the slope of academic efforts negatively. Finally, the growth of both academic competence and efforts predicted the attribution of academic success to ability, but the valence of prediction was different among the different educational levels. In the condition of academic failure, the composite growth of both academic competence and efforts predicted negatively the attribution to efforts, positively the attribution to study habits. These findings did not totally support the predictions deduced from the self-serving bias perspective and the self-worth theory. But as the same as the past researches, we believed that the attribution to efforts had important value culturally for Taiwan students.