本文估算台灣1996、2001及2006年出口品的能源及碳隱含量, 以衡量能源及碳 隱含量的變化情形及其影響因素。文中利用結構分解分析將出口品能源及碳隱 含量變化的影響因子區分為五個因子, 結果發現在1996至2001年間, 能源使用 效率、中間財的投入結構, 以及出口結構的變化是造成台灣出口品能源及碳隱含 量變化的主要因素; 而在2001至2006年間則是以出口結構的變化為主要影響因 子。此外, 本文也同時評估台灣能源政策對減少出口品之能源及碳隱含量的有效 性, 研究結果顯示, 在1996年至2001年間,若對化石能源課徵碳稅僅能微幅降低 出口品之能源及碳隱含量, 但在2001年至2006年間卻能使出口品之能源及碳隱 含量明顯的減少,亦即在2001年至2006年間碳稅政策較前一段期間來得更有效。

This paper computes the energy and carbon intensities of the Taiwanese economy in 1996, 2001 and 2006 to figure out the changes in energy and carbon embodied in products and exports and the contributing factors. We use structural decomposition analysis to find the relative contribution of five factors causing the changes in the energy and carbon embodied in exports. From 1996 to 2001, the changes in the direct energy efficiency, the structure of intermediate inputs and the structure of exports were the most important factors contributing to the changes of energy and carbon embodied in Taiwan's exports. Between 2001 and 2006, the structure of exports has been the most important factor causing the changes. This paper also explores whether energy policy could have effectively reduced the energy and carbon embodied in Taiwan's exports. Our results show imposing a carbon tax on using fossil fuels would have decreased the carbon embodied in exports only moderately from 1996 to 2001. However, the carbon embodied in exports would have decreased significantly from 2001 to 2006 after taxation, implying that a carbon tax would have been a more effective policy in the latter period.