本研究使用台灣氣候變遷推估與資訊平台計畫(TCCIP)所產製之台灣測站網格化資料以及第五階段 耦合氣候模式對比計畫(CMIP5)中12個模式的日最高溫資料，分析台灣1960-2005年間7-9月的熱浪。 以兩種相對高溫分析方法（CTX與EHF)評估觀測與模式中的熱浪，發現兩個方法對於熱浪的特性都 有不錯的掌握，觀測與CMIP5模式的熱浪發生頻率、持續時間與強度都有增加、增長與變強的趨勢。 從觀測的大尺度環流場發現，當台灣有熱浪發生時，西北太平洋的副熱帶高壓會向西延伸且增強， 造成台灣地區有反氣旋式環流距平籠罩，並伴隨有下沉氣流，導致高溫持續。近半數的模式模擬也呈現 一致的結果。除此之外，觀測與模式都發現熱浪事件發生時，200hPa的重力位高度距平場有顯著的波 列，從台灣經日本往北太平洋延伸，呈現正負正距平排列。波列的結構愈明顯，強度愈顯著，台灣的高 溫會愈容易出現也维持較久。 從CMIP5模式資料推估未來台灣熱浪的變遷趨勢，結果顯示未來輻射強迫力增加幅度愈大，熱浪 的持續時間與強度都會明顯增加增強。以現在的熱浪門檻為標準，未來若是能將全球暖化程度控制在低 輻射強迫力(RCP2.6)情境下，則台灣地區的熱浪不管是在頻率、持續時間或者強度上，都不會和現在有 太大的差異。相反的，在高輻射強迫力(RCP8.5)情境下，21世紀末台灣整個夏季都可能處於熱浪狀態， 即使以21世紀末的條件去篩選未來的熱浪事件，模式仍呈現世紀末的夏季時常為熱浪事件影響。不同 的是，模擬結果顯示大尺度的波列系統並非為世紀末熱浪事件的影響因素，而是受到中高緯北太平洋上 空暖化事件的影響。

We evaluated the heat waves in Taiwan based on the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform (TCCIP) 5km grid data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) twelve models in warm season (Jul-Sep) during 1960-2005. Two methods (CTX, EHF), developed by Perkins and Alexander (2013) and Nairn et al. (2009), were applied to detect heat waves. Results indicate the increase and intensification of heat wave frequency, duration, and magnitude in the past few decades and the warming future. The observation shows that the westward extension and intensification of the western North Pacific subtropical high during heat wave events result in anticyclonic and descending anomalies over Taiwan, which cause persistent warm weathers. Almost half of the CMIP5 models realistically simulate the observed characteristics. Both observation and models detect a significant wave train anomaly in 200hPa geopotential height during heat waves, which emanates from Taiwan, crossing Japan and to the North Pacific. The structure of wave train favors the persistence of high temperature over Taiwan and has a significant impact on the occurrence of heat wave events in Taiwan. Evaluation the projection of heat waves by CMIP5 models finds the heat wave frequency, duration and magnitude may remain relatively unchanged if the radiative forcing is controlled based on RCP2.6 scenario. However, in the high emission pathway (e.g., RCP8.5 scenario), heat wave will persistently occur in future summer in Taiwan. It is also found that the currently observed wave train will not be the main cause for future heat waves, instead the warming over the whole extratropical North Pacific will become the dominant factor.