近年來我國除面臨軍事外交等傳統安全威脅外，亦面臨重大天然災害等非傳統安全威脅的挑戰。本研究運用時間序列方法探討當發生國家安全威脅與重大天然災害衝擊事件時，各政事別預算之編列是否隨之調整。實證結果顯示：(1)國防支出長期受到社福及教科文支出排擠。(2)國家安全威脅對教科文支出有顯著負向影響。(3)重大天然災害對教科文及經濟發展支出有顯著正向影響。(4)一般政務支出對經濟發展支出及教科文支出有單向因果關係，教科文支出對經濟發展支出有雙向因果關係。近年南海周邊國家軍備呈持續成長之趨勢，然而我國國防預算未對安全威脅等事件進行調整，此隱含我國的政府預算制度可能存在若干問題，實證結果可供政府未來預算配置與國家軍事戰略之參考。

Apart from traditional security threats such as military diplomacy, Taiwan has in recent years also faced challenges from non-traditional security threats such as major natural disasters. This study uses a time-series method to explore whether the budget for political events should be adjusted when national security threats and major natural disasters occur. The empirical results show the following. (1) Defense expenditures have long been elbowed out by social welfare and expenditures on education, culture, and scientific technologies. (2) National security threats have a significant negative impact on the expenditures on education, culture, and scientific technologies. (3) Significant natural disasters have a significant positive impact on expenditures on education, culture, and scientific technologies and economic development. (4) General government expenditures exhibit a one-way causal relationship with expenditures on economic development and education, culture, and scientific technologies, and the expenditures on education, culture, and scientific technologies present a two-way causal relationship with the expenditure on economic development. The armaments of countries around the South China Sea have continued to grow recently, yet Taiwan’s defense budget has not adjusted for security threats. This implies that the Taiwan’s government’s budget system may have some deep-rooted problems. The empirical results found herein can be used as a reference for future government budget allocation and national military strategy.