篇名 | 最適即期匯率目標區與物價目標區的決定--即期匯率與股價雙預期經濟變數的考量 |
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卷期 | 46:2 |
並列篇名 | The Determination of the Optimal Spot Exchange Rates and Price Target Zones Band — A Consideration of Dual Expectations of the Spot Foreign Exchange Rate and Stock Price |
作者 | 廖培賢 |
頁次 | 251-311 |
關鍵字 | 目標區 、 蜜月效果 、 即期匯率預期變 動效果 、 貨幣需求的股利彈性 、 股價預期變動效果 、 target zone 、 honeymoon effect 、 the stock dividend elasticity of money demand 、 the effect of spot foreign exchange rate expectation shift 、 the effect of stock price expectation shift 、 EconLit 、 TSSCI |
出刊日期 | 201806 |
DOI | 10.6277/TER.201806_46(2).0003 |
本文目的是結合 Eaton andTumovsky (1982),Eaton andTumovsky (1984)與Blanchard(1981),建構一個可以詮釋即期外匯市場、遠期 外匯市場與股票市場互動關係的開放總體經濟模型。本文分析一且 貨幣當局同時宣佈實施「即期匯率目標區」與「物價目標區」政策, 各種資產市場的干擾是否對相關總體經濟變數具有安定效果,以及 如何選擇最適「即期匯率目標區」與「物價目標區」區間。本文的結 論顯示:(A) (i)「貨幣需求的股利彈性」大於抑或小於1,(ii)「即期 匯率預期變動效果」與「股價預期變動效果」的相對大小這兩項因 子在決定對相關總體經濟變數具有安定的效果上扮演了舉足輕重 的角色;(B) (i)「貨幣當局相對較爲重視即期匯率抑或本國物價的 波動」,(ii)「即期匯率預期變動效果」與「股價預期變動效果」的相 對大小這兩項因素在判定最適「即期匯率目標區」與「物價目標區」 區間的決定上也占了關鍵樞紐的角色。
This paper constructs a stochastic open macroeconomic model based on Eaton and Turnovsky (1982) and Eaton and Turnovsky (1984), and the Blanchard (1981) stock price dynamic adjustment model. We examine what will be the effect of alternative asset market exogenous disturbances on the possible honeymoon effect of relevant macroeconomic variables if the monetary authority synchronously executes a spot exchange rate and price target zone policy? Additionally, we analyze how the monetary authority chooses the optimal spot exchange rate and price target zone band? The major findings are: (1) the stock dividend elasticity of money demand and the size of the effect of a spot foreign exchange rate expectation shift relative to the effect of a stock price expectation shift are the two key factors determining the relevant macroeconomic variables exhibiting the honeymoon effect, (2) (a) the relative importance the monetary authority attaches to the fluctuations in the spot foreign exchange rate and the domestic price output level, (b) the relative size of the effect of a spot foreign exchange rate expectation shift and the effect of a stock price expectation shift are the two key factors to determine how the monetary authority chooses the optimal spot exchange rate and price target zone band.