中國機場的蓬勃發展，使得亞洲區域內的機場競爭日益激烈，尤其中國三 座沿海機場 (北京、上海、廣州機場) 之成長速度驚人，導致地理位置相近的台 灣桃園機場深受影響。為了探討中國三座沿海機場對桃園機場之航線市場影響， 本研究利用BCG 矩陣分析中國三座機場與台灣桃園機場之航線市場概況，並 預測四座機場未來的潛在市場，進一步探討機場間市場重疊的現象，最後透過 QSI 市場預測方法分析四座機場未來之航線市佔率變化。研究結果顯示，與中 國機場相比，桃園機場直至2016 年的航線開發情形相對居於劣勢，其歐洲轉機 市場則最容易受到中國機場影響，特別是來自北京、上海機場的挑戰，使得2016 年桃園機場的轉機市佔率已處於落後狀態，未來發展更是受到阻礙。

The vigorous development of China's airports has seriously increased airport competition in the Asian region. In particular, China's three main airports' (Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) strong growth has affected the neighboring Taiwan Taoyuan Airport. To understand potential impact of the three China's main airports' growth on the neighboring Taiwan Taoyuan Airport, airport competition from the viewpoint of air routes development is explored in this study. Based on the global flight data of 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016, this paper firstly analyzes the market status of the China's three main airports and Taiwan Taoyuan Airport by BCG matrix. Next, potential markets of the four airports were predicted and markets overlapped between the airports identified. Finally, the QSI method is used to forecast the changes of the route market share of the four airports. The results showed that until 2016 Taoyuan Airport’s route development is relatively in disadvantage in terms of number of destinations served or scope of markets when compared to the China’s main airports. This implies that there are difficulties to encounter in developing new routes for Taoyuan Airport. In addition, among the 66 Taoyuan Airport’s future potential routes, almost half of them are currently operated routes of China Airports. Due to the geographical closeness of the four airports, there are very high degree of market overlaps. Overall, 74.5% of Taoyuan Airport’s transfer routes are covered by China’s airports. There will be high competition among the airports for the transfer passengers.