兒童如何進行因果推論與指稱代名詞推論，是兒童讀者能否形成連貫性閱讀理解表徵的關鍵能 力，因此，探討因果推論與指稱代名詞推論的發展組型，是理論研究引導教學實務之重要貢獻。 本研究目的旨在探討不同指稱代名詞型態與文本因果關係對國小學童在推論句閱讀時間的影 響，並進一步分析弱理解者與優理解者推論能力的差異。研究參與者分別為128、194、158 位二、 三、四年級學童，他們於電腦上自行按鍵控制語句的閱讀時間，閱讀的材料是由兩個句子構成的 短文，短文的首句會提及兩位人物，第二句為推論句，描述首句當中的一位人物所處的狀態或從 事的動作；短文前後句之間的指稱代名詞型態（零代詞與明示代詞）與因果關係強度（高、低因 果關係）進行系統性變化，構成四種文本類型。研究設計為以年級、指稱代名詞型態、因果關係 強度為自變項之三因子混合設計，主要依變項為推論句的閱讀時間。結果顯示，年級越高閱讀推 論語句所需時間越短，整體而言，二、三、四年級學童具有相似的推論組型，三因子交互作用不 顯著，兩兩變項之二因子交互作用達顯著。不論推論句為零代詞或明示代詞，學童閱讀高因果關 係的推論句所花時間皆短於低因果關係句；當語句之間具有高因果關係時，學童閱讀零代詞推論 句的時間短於明示代詞句，但是在低因果關係時，學童閱讀該兩種代詞型式的推論句時間並無差 異。接著，經過篩選之後進一步分析三、四年級弱理解者與優理解者的推論能力差異情形。結果 發現，三年級的優理解者進行閱讀推論的時間比弱理解者短，但四年級的優與弱理解者之間沒有 差異，整體而言，三、四年級學童在語句間有高因果關係時的推論時間皆比低因果關係時更短， 且零代詞推論的時間也短於明示代詞句。顯示文本中以零代詞指稱且句子間具有高因果關係時， 對優、弱理解能力兒童皆有促進推論的效果。

Referential and causal inferences are key abilities for the development of reading comprehension. It is hence important to delineate children’s developmental patterns of these abilities to serve as indexes for predicting future reading comprehension achievement and providing diagnostic sources of comprehension difficulties. This study aims at examining the development and interactions of different forms of pronoun and causality during reading short texts for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th grade students, and further comparing differences between good and poor comprehenders. The numbers of participants for each grade were 174, 249, and 219 respectively. Thirty-six short texts were constructed with each contained two sentences. The first sentence always mentioned two characters and the second sentence related to the first one by varying pronominal (zero versus overt pronoun) and causal relations (high versus low causality). An interrogative question appeared at the end of each text to probe readers’ comprehension. Participants sit in front of a personal computer and read the texts in a self-paced manner by pressing designated keys. This study was a 3x2x2 mixed design with grade as a between-subject factor (2nd, 3rd, & 4th grade) and pronoun forms (zero versus overt pronoun) and causality (high versus low causality) as within-subject factors. The main dependent variable was the reading time of second/inference sentences. The results indicate that three-way interaction is not significant. Two-way interactions among three factors are all significant. Overall, the developmental pattern shows that, older the readers, shorter the reading time for inference sentences. All grades show a similar pattern for processing inference sentences. The effect of causality is always significant with shorter reading time for high than low causality text for both zero and overt pronoun conditions. Further analysis reveals that, for high causal relation texts, inference sentence reading time for zero pronoun condition is significantly shorter than that of overt pronoun condition. However, for low causal relation texts, there is no inference sentence reading time difference between zero pronoun and overt pronoun conditions among students across all grades. After selecting poor versus good comprehenders from 3rd and 4th grade, we further analyze their differences in reading inference sentences. Third grade good comprehenders process inference sentences faster than poor comprehenders but there is no reading time difference between good versus poor comprehenders for the 4th grade students. To conclude, both good and poor comprehenders take less time in reading the high than the low causality texts, and less time for zero pronoun than overt pronoun texts. This study has demonstrated that the high causal relation texts for zero pronoun conditions will improve children's resolution process, whether they have good or poor understanding of the text.