伴隨經濟軍事實力增強，中國的民族主義情緒已被視為當今國際秩序 的潛在威脅。民族主義裹挾下的中國會否極具破壞性？或是如其所自我標 榜的「和平崛起」？本文將從中國民族主義極為重要的來源——港臺問題 切入，比較1949年中共建政後同香港、臺灣的關係演變及相應戰略政策 的調整，從而歸納、提煉出中國（官方）民族主義之本質——現實政治民 *本文曾發表於中華民國國際關係學會2018年會暨「變遷中的國際秩序與挑戰：全球化、地 緣政治與新威權主義」學術研討會。作者感謝與會者謝奕旭老師、廖舜右老師和譚偉恩 老師等的評論，以及吳玉山老師曾對本文所提出的建議，還要對兩位期刊審查人表達謝 意，當然一切文責由作者自負。 族主義，該民族主義的最大特點是「流變不居」，其具體表現形態由中共 的「戰略評估」與「訴求能力」兩大因素決定：①當戰略評估是「維持現 狀」時，不論訴求能力之高低，均表現為「實用型民族主義」；②當戰略 評估是「做出改變」且訴求能力為「低」時，是「攻勢型民族主義」；③ 當戰略評估是「做出改變」且訴求能力為「高」時，是「果敢型民族主義」。循 此邏輯，我們便不難理解：為何在涉及「主權爭端」時，面對同樣重要的 「失地」，中共在1950至1970年代的對港方針是「長期打算，充分利用」卻 急於武力「解放臺灣」，而到了 1970年代末至今，則轉變為堅持「和平統 一，一國兩制」與「不排除使用武力」；以及，為何目前習近平會採取諸 如「一帶一路」這樣的商業手段（而非武力戰爭）來伸張中國的領土影響 力。最後，本文基於上述「現實政治民族主義」邏輯探討了兩岸關係的未 來走向與中國崛起的可能影響。

With the strengthening of economic and military power, Chinese nationalism has been regarded as a potential threat to the current international order. Will China under the nationalism be extremely destructive? Or is it a self-proclaimed “peaceful rise”？ This paper will analyze the extremely important sources of Chinese nationalism, the Hongkong and Taiwan issues, comparing the evolution of relations between Mainland-Hongkong and Mainland-Taiwan after 1949. By looking into CCP’s corresponding strategies and policies, this paper summarizes the essence of Chinese (official) nationalism - realpolitik nationalism, whose biggest feature is floating and specific manifestation is determined by the CCP’s “strategic assessment” and “claim strength”： (1) When strategic assessment is maintenance, regardless of how much the claim strength is, Chinese nationalism takes the form of pragmatic nationalism; (2) when strategic assessment is change and claim strength is low, it is aggressive nationalism; (3) when strategic assessment is change while claim strength is high, it is assertive nationalism. Following the above logic, it is not difficult for us to understand why: in the cases of sovereign disputes, when faced with the same important two lost lands, the CCP’s policy toward Hongkong in 1950s to 1970s was “long-term planning, fully utilize” but was eager for “liberate Taiwan by force”，while by the end of the 1970s to present, it has changed to adhere to “peaceful reunification under one country, two systems” and “don5t rule out the use of force”； and why Xi Jinping adopted commercial means, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, rather than military warfare to extend the territorial influence of China. Finally, based on the logic of realpolitik nationalism, this paper explores the future directions of cross-strait relations and the possible impacts of China’s rise.