本研究建構航路選擇的成本評估模擬模式，進行歐亞洲間替代航運路線 的有效性估算。以巴拿馬型油輪為案例分析發現，通過選擇經北極航 線來替代傳統蘇伊士運河航線的貨物運送，對於降低油耗和成本是最有效 的。但其效果取決於許多因素，包括：北極型船舶的建造成本高(租金費率 高)，船速減慢所引起的時間延遲，額外的破冰服務費用。模擬結果發現燃 料價格和租船費率變動將導致航程成本產生，當燃油價格低於每公噸275 美 元，而且船舶租金費率處於低點時，經由蘇伊士運河的傳統航線之航次成本 將低於北冰洋航線。此外，北極型船舶的高租金費率，亦將導致航次成本增 加。因此，選擇北極航線來實現提高船舶運營績效，降低成本的目標是有困 難。

The paper evaluates the effectiveness of alternative shipping route between Asia and Europe, based on a newly developed evaluation of simulation model to calculate costs. The case study of Panama oil tanker and found the selection of altering the shipping route from traditional route via the Suez Canal to Arctic Ocean via the Northern Sea Route is most effective in cutting fuel consumption and costs. But the effectiveness depend many factors, including: higher building costs for ice-classed ships (as higher charter rate), time delayed by slower speeds and charge for extra ice breaker service. The result of simulation found fuel price and charter rate to derive different scenarios for voyage costs. When the fuel price less than 275 USD per metric tonne and charter rate was low level, the voyage costs of traditional route via the Suez Canal is lowing than Arctic Ocean via the Northern Sea Route. In addition a high charter rate of ice-classed ships leading to increase in voyage cost per trip. Therefore, the goals of cost down in selection the Arctic Ocean via the Northern Sea Route to improve their performance is difficult to be achieved through altering shipping route.