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篇名 使用房地產相關股票之價格預測房價
卷期 47:2
並列篇名 Predicting House Prices with Real-Estate-Related Stocks
作者 林姿妤
頁次 159-182
關鍵字 房地產相關之股票價格房價樣本內與樣本外預測real-estate-related stock priceshouse pricesin- and outof- sample predictionEconLitTSSCI
出刊日期 201906
DOI 10.6277/TER.201906_47(2).0001

中文摘要

本文探討房地產相關股票之價格是否有助於預測房價。透過樣本內與樣本外預測分析,結果發現,房地產相關股票的價格對於美國房價的預測表現極佳。根據此實證結果,由於股票價格可及時反應市場資訊,且無資料修正問題,因此對於投資人及政策制定者而言,房地產相關股票之價格不失為房價之良好預測指標。

英文摘要

This paper investigates the forecasting content of real-estate-related stock prices for house prices. Using both in- and out-of-sample tests, this paper shows that real-estate-related stock price indices have extremely robust power in predicting US house prices. The empirical results are highly valuable for investors and policy makers because real-estate-related stock prices are shown to be a reliable predictor reflecting timely market information and are readily available to forecast real estate market movements.

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