篇名 | 使用房地產相關股票之價格預測房價 |
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卷期 | 47:2 |
並列篇名 | Predicting House Prices with Real-Estate-Related Stocks |
作者 | 林姿妤 |
頁次 | 159-182 |
關鍵字 | 房地產相關之股票價格 、 房價 、 樣本內與樣本外預測 、 real-estate-related stock prices 、 house prices 、 in- and outof- sample prediction 、 EconLit 、 TSSCI |
出刊日期 | 201906 |
DOI | 10.6277/TER.201906_47(2).0001 |
本文探討房地產相關股票之價格是否有助於預測房價。透過樣本內與樣本外預測分析,結果發現,房地產相關股票的價格對於美國房價的預測表現極佳。根據此實證結果,由於股票價格可及時反應市場資訊,且無資料修正問題,因此對於投資人及政策制定者而言,房地產相關股票之價格不失為房價之良好預測指標。
This paper investigates the forecasting content of real-estate-related stock prices for house prices. Using both in- and out-of-sample tests, this paper shows that real-estate-related stock price indices have extremely robust power in predicting US house prices. The empirical results are highly valuable for investors and policy makers because real-estate-related stock prices are shown to be a reliable predictor reflecting timely market information and are readily available to forecast real estate market movements.