篇名 | 臺灣的金融控股集團股票收益率動態行為-基於瑪律科夫區制轉移模型的實證研究 |
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卷期 | 13:1 |
並列篇名 | The Dynamic Behavior for the Stock Returns of Taiwan’ Financial Holding Companies: An Empirical Investigation Based on Markov Two Regime-Switching Model |
作者 | 陳智明 、 陳家欣 |
頁次 | 001-020 |
關鍵字 | 瑪律科夫區制轉移 、 金融控股集團 、 混業經營 、 Markov regime switching 、 Financial holding companies 、 Mixed operation |
出刊日期 | 201903 |
DOI | 10.3966/199553922019031301001 |
本文構建瑪律科夫兩區制轉移模型估計臺灣14家金融控股公司股票收益率和風險的動態行為。實證結果表明,臺灣14家金融控股公司的股票收益率和風險均發生區制轉移;其中12家金融控股公司的股票收益率和風險在較長的時間和較大的概率處於股票收益率無顯著差異和風險顯著較低的區制二;對臺灣14家金融控股公司的股票收益率和風險在金融危機期間的估計結果也得到了相似的結論。臺灣金融業混業經營的綜合表現出色,為大陸金融業開展混業經營的未來預期提供了前瞻性的借鑒。
In this paper, we estimate the dynamic behavior of 14 financial holding companies’ stock return and risk in Taiwan by constructing a Markov two regime switching model. The empirical results show that: the stock return and risk of all 14 financial holding companies’ have occurred during regime switching; the stock return and risk of 12 financial holding companies’, have a high probability that in the long term will have no significant differences in stock returns and have significantly lower risks during regime two; our research finds that during the financial crisis, the stock return and risk of all 14 financial holding companies also reached a similar conclusions. The financial performance of Taiwanese financial companies using mixed operation management, gives mainland China a prospective view regarding mixed operations in finance.