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大氣科學

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篇名 利用雙偏極化雷達觀測資料進行極短期天氣預報評估——2008年西南氣流實驗IOP8期間颮線系統個案
卷期 48:1
並列篇名 Evaluating very Short-term Forecast by Using Dual-Polarimetric Radar Observations: A Case Study of the SOWMEX-IOP8
作者 游承融鍾高陞蔡直謙
頁次 001-043
關鍵字 雙偏極化雷達參數觀測算符雙偏極化雷達觀測模式校驗dual-polarimetric radar observation operatordual-polarimetric observationmodel verification
出刊日期 202010
DOI 10.3966/025400022020104801001

中文摘要

臺灣氣象雷達網近年正逐步升級成雙偏極化雷達,使得未來雷達資料的分析與應用日趨豐富。本研究參考Jung et al.(2008a)建置了一套雙偏極化雷達參數觀測算符(dual-polarimetric radar observation operator),可將模式的輸出變數轉換為雙偏極化雷達變數,以利數值模式與觀測之驗證。本研究藉由模擬2008年西南氣流實驗IOP8(intensive observation period #8)期間6月14日的颮線個案,使用美國大氣科學研究中心於臺灣西南部架設之S波段雙偏極化雷達進行驗證。同時,以系集雷達資料同化系統,同化雷達回波與徑向風,使得個案分析場之雲動力場更接近真實大氣狀態,以利系統結構與偏極化雷達變數之分析。確認觀測算符能成功將模式變數轉換成觀測變數後,再藉由CFAD (contour frequency by altitude diagram)分析雙偏極化雷達觀測與資料同化後之分析場進行校驗。同時,進一步將降水系統分成對流與層狀區,評估數值模式在不同區域之特性。由對流層狀區分析結果顯示,回波的模擬與觀測分布接近,但差異反射率則皆有高估的情形,特別是雙矩量微物理方案的WDM6與Morrison實驗中尤為明顯。比差異相位差則是在對流區分布之表現較接近觀測,而GCE和WSM6的分布更接近觀測。此外,各實驗之系集平均預報結果經雨量分數校驗與CFAD比較顯示,單矩量微物理方案如GCE與WSM6表現較佳。最後,利用不同組敏感度實驗測試,了解改變雙偏極化雷達參數觀測算符的參數設定對於雙偏極化雷達參數的改變程度為何,藉此了解此雙偏極化雷達參數觀測算符之特性。希望藉由此個案評估,透過數值模式之校驗,探討如何調整觀測算符使之適合台灣環境。

英文摘要

The Taiwan Meteorological Radar Network is gradually upgrading into polarization radar, which enables the use of radar data in different aspects. In this study, a polarimetric radar observation operator, which provides a connection between model and observational variables, was established for high resolution model verification. This study used the National Center for Atmospheric Sciences (NCAR) S-band dual polarized radar which deployed in southwestern Taiwan during Southwest Monsoon Experiment (SoWMEX). A squall line case occurred on June 14, 2008 (IOP #8) was selected. To ensure the analysis of dynamics and thermodynamic are close to reality in this event, the ensemble-based data assimilation system is used to assimilate radar reflectivity and radial wind. First, it is confirmed that the simulator can successfully convert the model variables into radar echoes, the differential reflectivity and specific deferential phase. Second, contour frequency by altitude diagrams (CFADs) are used to compare the polarimetric radar observations and the analysis obtained from data assimilation system. The precipitation system is further partitioned into convection and stratiform areas and the characteristics of the numerical model in different regions are evaluated. The results show that the simulations of the radar reflectivity are close to the observed structure. Besides, the specific differential phase are closer to the observation in the convection area while GCE and WSM6 are utilized. However, the differential reflectivity is overestimated both in convective and stratiform regions, especially when double-moment microphysical schemes such as WDM6 and Morrison are used. In addition, the short-tern forecasts using analysis ensemble mean demonstrated that the GCE and WSM6 perform better by evaluating the rainfall and CFADs of radar parameters. Furthermore, sensitivity tests of different coefficients are investigated to explore the variations of reflectivity and bright band structure by changing the parameter settings of operator. Based on this research, a set of dual-polarization radar parameter observation operators suitable for the Taiwan area was established to facilitate the subsequent statistical validation of the numerical model.

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