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大氣科學

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篇名 聖嬰與印度洋偶極子的耦合效應對海洋大陸乾季陸地降水的影響
卷期 49:1
並列篇名 Combining effects of El Niño and IOD on Maritime Continent’s Dry Season Land Precipitation
作者 肖鶴鳴羅敏輝李庭慧
頁次 032-051
關鍵字 海洋大陸聖嬰印度洋偶極子年代際變化北大西洋年代際振盪Maritime ContinentEl NiñoPositive Indian Ocean DipoleInterdecadal ChangAtlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
出刊日期 202107
DOI 10.3966/025400022021074901002

中文摘要

被太平洋與印度洋環繞的海洋大陸,是氣象研究中的主角之一。因爲海洋大陸特殊的地理位置,陸地降水有著鮮明的年際變化。本研究中,從與海洋大陸乾季降水息息相關的火災出發,發現當聖嬰(El Niño)與正相位印度洋偶極子(positive Indian Ocean Dipole; PIOD)耦合時,位於海洋大陸的沃克環流從近地面到高層相較於氣候值都有更顯著的沉降距平,使得海洋大陸七月至十月的陸地降水顯著減少,導致更嚴重、更持久的乾旱,進而引發後續的森林大火。同時,我們也探討El Niño與PIOD在年代際時間尺度的變化,並找到兩個可能的影響因子:北大西洋年代際振盪與全球暖化。從觀測中發現當北大西洋年代際振盪為正(負)相位時,有更少(多) El Niño與PIOD耦合在一起;另一方面,從數值模式中發現全球暖化也有助於El Niño與PIOD的耦合。這也意味著在海洋大陸,未來的乾旱與火災事件可能會更頻繁。本研究利用觀測、再分析資料與氣候模式的結果探討El Niño與PIOD對海洋大陸陸地降水的影響,下一步則需要利用氣候模式進行一系列的實驗,以驗證觀測資料所觀察到的現象以及探討其背後的物理機制。

英文摘要

The Maritime Continent (MC) is surrounded by the Indian Ocean and Pacific, one of the main characters in the atmospheric science study. There are apparent interannual variabilities in MC’s land precipitation because of its unique geographic location. This study focuses on MC’s dry season land precipitation, related to the MC’s forest fires. The significant decrease in MC’s land precipitation is associated with the reduced upward motion from the surface to 150hPa in MC’s land regions under El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (PIOD). The decrease in land precipitation can further contribute to more severe MC’s fires. We also found that the event numbers of combined El Niño and PIOD year are ununiformed in historical and may be associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and warmer atmospheric temperature. More combined El Niño and PIOD events under global warming, implying that there will be more server drought and fire events over the MC regions in the future. This study utilized observations, reanalysis datasets, and climate model simulations to explore El Niño and PIOD on the MC’s land precipitation. A series of climate model experiments can be further utilized to investigate the physical mechanisms behind.

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