現有文獻中，稅負誘發的遷徙研究常受限於財稅政策變數的內生性問題。本文利用美國1986年的稅制改革法案為自然實驗，以此擷取出所得稅變動在各州間的外生變異，並使用工具變數廻歸模型及一次差分的計量方法，估算稅負差異對於美國跨州遷徙行為的因果效應。本研究結果顯示，一州所得稅率的提高會促進其青壯年人口外流並降低人口移入，而對後者的影響通常比前者更強。但儘管所得稅及其他財稅變數對遷徙行為有顯著的邊際影響，我們發現重力模型、地域關聯性、生活成本及其他經濟因素，對跨州遷徙行為的變異有更高的解釋力。

Existing studies of tax-induced migration commonly suffer from the endogeneity issue of the tax inputs. Using the Tax Reform Act of 1986 as a natural experiment, we identify an exogenous component of the cross-state variation in income tax changes and estimate the causal effects of tax burdens on interstate migration using instrumental variables and first differencing. We consistently find that an increase in state-specific income tax rates promotes migration outflows and discourages migration inflows of the families of prime-age householders in the United States, with the latter effect being typically stronger than the former. Despite the presence of significant marginal effects, income taxes and other fiscal policies account only for a small portion of the total variance in migration during the analyzed periods, 1985–1990 and 1975–1980. Rather, the effects of gravity and spatial interaction, the cost of living and other economic factors are more important in explaining the variance in migration.