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篇名 東亞國際秩序變化影響下的俄羅斯「東轉戰略」:主導觀念、制度安排與國際規範
卷期 特集007
並列篇名 Shifts of International Order in East Asia and Its Influence on Russia’s “Pivot to East”: Leading Ideal, Institutional Arrangements and International Norms
作者 卡爾瑪耶娃徐博
頁次 037-058
關鍵字 東亞國際秩序俄羅斯「東轉戰略」大國政治East AsiaInternational OrderRussia“Pivot to East”Great Power Politics
出刊日期 202203

中文摘要

俄羅斯是當今國際體系中的重要大國,其對外政策是塑造國際秩序的重要因素。「東轉戰略」是2014年烏克蘭危機發生之後俄羅斯加快實施的重要國家戰略,也是一個包含了政治、經濟、外交多層次內容的綜合性戰略。在以往有關「東轉戰略」的研究中,學者們往往關注對俄羅斯對外關係和國內政治對此戰略形成的影響。本文則著重研究東亞地區國際秩序對於俄羅斯「東轉戰略」的塑造。文章認為國際秩序主要由主導觀念,制度安排和國際規範組成。近年來東亞國際秩序中主導觀念的變化表現為防禦性現實主義邏輯向進攻性現實主義邏輯演化,制度安排變化表現為美國主導同盟體系轉型以及新區域多邊合作制度出現,國際規範變化表現為氣候變化規範和政經合一規範的興起。這些要素的變化對於俄羅斯「東轉戰略」的發展將產生全面影響,俄羅斯的遠東開發戰略將面臨更加嚴峻的挑戰,其與東亞國家在能源、投資等領域合作模式也面臨轉型與升級。

英文摘要

Russia is an important power in international system, and the "Pivot to East" is an important strategy that Russia has accelerated to implement after the Ukraine crisis in 2014. It is also a comprehensive strategy that includes political, economic and diplomatic content. In previous studies on the "Pivot to East", scholars have often focused on the influence of Russia's foreign relations and domestic politics on the formation of this strategy. This paper focuses on the shaping of the East Asian international order for Russia's "Pivot to East". The article argues that the international order is mainly composed of leading idea, institutional arrangements and international norms. In recent years, the change of leading ideal in the East Asian international order is manifested in the evolution from defensive realist logic to offensive realist logic, the change in institutional arrangements is manifested in the transformation of the US-led alliance system and the emergence of a new regional multilateral cooperation system, and the change in international norms is manifested in climate change and the rise of combination of economic and political and interests. Changes of the East Asian international order will have a comprehensive impact on the development of Russia's "Pivot to East" strategy.

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