台灣於天津條約之後開港,這對台灣經濟發展是否產生了重大影響呢?本文專就糖業來進行探討, 發現開港對糖業發展影響有限。開港之初台灣糖出口之所以大幅擴張,應與同時結束之太平天國之亂有關,而和開港本身關聯性較小。雖然日本開港對於台灣糖業產生極正面的影響,但由於當時未開放直接外人投資,台灣與蓬勃發展中的糖業工業革命絕緣。1884年發生了世界性的糖業危機,擁有先進生產技術的印尼與菲律賓糖自歐美市場撤退,轉戰中國與日本市場,結束了台灣糖出口的盛況。

Taiwan opened ports after the second Opium War. This paper investigates
whether this opening event stimulated Taiwan’s sugar export, and we find
opening trade with foreign direct investment banned promoted sugar exports
in a limited manner. Though Taiwan’s sugar exports expanded greatly
when ports were opened, this should be largely attributed to the ending of
the Taiping Rebellion which reset Taiwan’s trading pattern. Japan’s opening
of its ports did boost Taiwan’s sugar trade, but Taiwan’s sugar, which was
produced in a backward manner, had difficulty competing with other Asian
sugar produced by modern technology. When the sugar crisis took place
in 1884, Java and the Philippines started to shift their sugar markets from
the West to Asia. They won a large market share in China and Japan and
depressed Taiwan’s sugar industry.