文章詳目資料

Journal of Computers EIMEDLINEScopus

  • 加入收藏
  • 下載文章
篇名 A Bayesian Network Model for Rough Estimations of Casualties by Strong Earthquakes in Emergency Mode
卷期 33:6
作者 Dan TianYong-Jie XuTong-Lei QuRong-Guang JiaHao ZhangWen-Jie Song
頁次 083-090
關鍵字 rough estimationsBayesian Networksearthquakeemergency modeEIMEDLINEScopus
出刊日期 202212
DOI 10.53106/199115992022123306007

中文摘要

英文摘要

Rough estimations in emergency mode are now playing an important role in making key decisions for managing disasters including search and rescue. Most of the studies only paid attention to the earthquakes and ignored the presence of disaster chains and the hazard interactions in earthquakes. Bayesian Networks are ideal tools to explore the causal relationships between events, combine prior knowledge and observed data, and are integrated to solve uncertain problems. In such situations, we present improvements based on a Bayesian Network Model in approaches to estimations of casualties in earthquakes. According to the development of the earthquake disaster chain in literature, the proposed model extracts the key events of earthquakes, considers the hazard interactions, and constructs the Bayesian Networks based on a scenario-based method, to deal with the events in the earthquakes. In the model, lifeline system damages, fires, landslides, and debris flow have been integrated into the networks. The conditional probability tables are encoded by using the collected cases. Validations in the Netica allow the simulation of expected shaking intensity and estimation of the expected casualties by strong earthquakes in emergency mode. Compared to the literature, the method is closer to the fact in the rough estimations, providing important information for our response to earthquakes. Further, rough estimations are started when only seismic intensity or fewer earthquake source parameters are available.

本卷期文章目次

相關文獻