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國防管理學報

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篇名 政治因素對於預算通過率之影響
卷期 43:2
並列篇名 The Influence of Political Factor on the Budget Pass Rate
作者 傅澤偉張哲豪
頁次 068-082
關鍵字 預算案通過比率政治因素國防預算非國防預算Budget Pass RatePolitical FactorsDefense BudgetNon-Defense Budget
出刊日期 202211

中文摘要

有關政治因素對於我國政府預算的影響較少被討論。本研究以民國83年至108年期間我國執政黨(包含中國國民黨及民主進步黨)在立法院席次占比、國民所得毛額、我國立法委員選舉年度做為解釋變數且以預算案通過比率及金額為被解釋變數採用ARDL模式檢視其長期均衡關係。研究發現主要為(1)執政黨在立法院席次占比及立法委員選舉年度對於國防預算案通過比率呈顯著正向影響且我國立法委員選舉年度對國防預算案通過比率的影響大於對總預算通過比率的影響。(2)非國防預算案通過比率與執政黨在立法院席次占比在長期上有負向關係,我國立法委員選舉年度對非國防預算案通過比率沒有顯著相關。(3)國防法定預算取自然對數只有執政黨當期在立法院席次占比呈現正向顯著效果。

英文摘要

The impact of political factors on government's budget is less discussed. In this study, the proportion of ruling party which including Koumintang and Democratic Progress Party in Legislative Yuan Repulic of China, the goss national income, and the legislator election year is discussed and data ranges from 1994 to 2019. The budget passed rate and budget amount are used as dependent variables and ARDL model examine the long-term equilibrium relationship. The main findings of this study are as following:(1)the proportion of seats in the Legislative Yuan of the ruling party and the legislator election year have a significantly positive impact on the national defense budget pass rate, and the impact of the legislator election year on the national defense budget pass rate is greater than the overall budget pass rate at the legislator election year. (2)There is a long-term negative relationship between the pass rate of non-defense budgets and the proportion of seats in the Legislative Yuan of the ruling party. There is no significant correlation between the pass rate of non-defense budgets and the legislator election year.(3)The natural logarithm value of the national defense budget has a significantly positive relationship with current proportion of seats of the ruling party.

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