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正修學報

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篇名 國際收支自動調節機制的區域經濟一體化驗證
卷期 35
並列篇名 Verification of Regional Economic Integration of the Balance of Payments Automatic Adjustment Mechanism
作者 楊國樑江雅軒
頁次 013-026
關鍵字 區域經濟一體化經濟同盟國際收支實際有效匯率外商直接投資regional economic integrationeconomic alliancebalance of paymentsreal effective exchange rateforeign direct investment
出刊日期 202212

中文摘要

一國的國際收支會對其利率、匯率、貿易、財政、外匯管理和對外投資等方面產生重要的影響,國際收支平衡也成為分析區域經濟情況的重要指標。本文在多元迴歸模型基礎上,對三個區域經濟體進行模型理論分析,同時採用平穩性檢驗、格蘭傑因果關係檢驗和協整檢驗,通過脈衝響應分析研究變量間的相互作用。實證分析表明,組織成員國數量多,國家之間差異性大,造成因素間影響複雜化;為達到共同發展與合作共贏,各組織內部應該加強合作並互相學習,找到最適合的發展方法和模式。

英文摘要

The balance of payments of a country will have important influence to the interest rate, exchange rate, trade, finance and foreign investment, and foreign exchange management. The balance of payments also become an important index for the analysis of the regional economic situation to better formulate corresponding economic policy. Based on the multiple regression model, this paper theoretical analyzes three of the economic alliance models. The stationarity test, Granger causality test and Johansen co-integration test are used to study the interaction between variables through impulse response analysis. The empirical results show that when the number of member countries of the organization is large, the differences among countries are very difficult to be unified, which in term results in the complicated influence among factors. In order to achieve common development and win-win cooperation, the organizations should strengthen internal cooperation and learn from each other to find the most suitable development methods and models.

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