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體育學報 TSSCI

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篇名 博奕理論在體育個案研究之應用一一以海峽兩岸奧會1979-1986年為例說明
卷期 24
並列篇名 Research On The Changes For Interactive Model Of Bothchinese OLympic CommitteesDuring 1979 To 1986 By game Theory.
作者 李俊杰
頁次 013-024
關鍵字 博奕理論囚徒困境零和遊戲Game throeyPrisoner's Dilemma GameZero-SLJm gameTSSCI
出刊日期 199712

中文摘要

本研究旨在透過博奕理論的結構化模式,加以理出(1979-1986)年間當時兩岸奧會的賽局,並可獲致以下結果:一、1979-1986年間,隨著政治意識形態的和緩,兩岸漸由過去爭奪唯一代表整個「中國」的奧會會籍轉為同時存在於國際奧會的會籍。實繫於中共「一國兩制」的政治意識形態的主張。是以,政治意識形態,牽引著兩岸奧會策略的抉擇。二、從博奕理論中發現,兩岸奧會在此一階段前期,雙方缺乏有效的溝通管道,逐漸驅釀成「囚徒困境」的賽局;但在雙方各取所得,減少所失的情況下,r奧會協議」簽訂後,兩岸已至現出「相互合作」的囚徒困境賽 局。但是,r奧會協議」也只是兩岸奧會互相妥協的產物,其中尚潛伏著 「非對等」的關係'自然是未來海峽兩岸奧會活動不穩定的誘因,因此兩岸極可能因主權問題而重返前期僵持的「零和遊戲J'這也將鳥兩岸奧會未來埋下不穩定的種子。

英文摘要

This purport of this research is to conclude the games for both chinese of straits in the Olympic Games during 1979 to 1986 through the constructure mode of game thorey, and the following results could be gained: 1.During 1979-1986, with the moderation of political ideology, both Chinese of straits transfer the Olympic membership for which stI1,lggled to only represent the whole "china" into the membership which are existing in the National Olympic Commission. As a matter of fact, it results form the political ideology of "One Nation, ATwo System". Therefore,the political idelogy involves the decision for strategy regarding Olympic Commission for both Chinese of straits. 2. From the Game Thorey,it's to find that both Chinese Olympic Comm issions are short of effective channel for Communication at the former term of this stage and produced the "Prisoner's Dilemma Game" gradually; howevre, under the condition that both acquired what they want and reduce the loss, after the "Olympic Agreement" entered, both sides have presented the "Prisoner's Dilemma Game" of mutual cooperation. Nevertheless, the "Olympic Agreement" is only a product as a result of compomise between both Chinese Olympic Commissions, in which there is still "non-euqal" relationship hided and that naturally is a factor to the unstable activities of both Olympic games in the future, Aaccordingly, it's extremely possible for both Chinese of straits returning to the statemated "Zero-Sum game" in the former term that buries an unstable seed for both Olympic Commissions in the future as well.

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